In this game, the rule is: draws keep you in the same round, only wins advance you.
With an initial population of N, the theoretical number of wins required to become the
final survivor is roughly ceil(log2(N)).
| Stage Size | Wins Required | Victory Probability (Theory) | Everyday Analogy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 players | 7 wins | ≈ 1/128 (0.78%) | Like winning a small neighborhood lottery |
| 10,000 players | 14 wins | ≈ 1/16,384 (0.0061%) | Like being chosen as the one winner in a full Tokyo Dome |
| 1,000,000 players | 20 wins | ≈ 1/1,048,576 (0.000095%) | Like winning a “one winner per year” campaign prize |
| 8,000,000,000 (Global) | 33 wins | ≈ 1/8,589,934,592 | Far less likely than winning the jackpot
hundreds of times in a row Much rarer than being struck by lightning many times over |
* In actual play, draws make the number of rounds required even larger.
* Probabilities shown are theoretical values; actual results are not guaranteed.